By all intents and purposes, the 2017 PBA Philippine Cup Finals is a dream match up. One one end, we have the back-to-back defending Philippine Cup champions — the league's deepest team, the San Miguel Beermen. On the other end, we have the "people's team" — the league's biggest draw and crowd darling, the Bgy. Ginebra Gin Kings. This is a championship series that is sure to fill the stands, rule the airwaves, and hog the headlines.
Here's how I think things will go down:
- Tim Cone will have no choice but to go big and match up with June Mar Fajardo. Coach Tim will really need Japeth Aguilar and Joe Devance to match up with the Kraken in the paint, and that's sure to be the toughest assignment in town. It would have certainly been quite challenging to contain the reigning MVP had Greg Slaughter been healthy, but even more so now that Ginebra will rely mainly on any combination of Japeth, JDV, Aljon Mariano, Jervy Cruz, and Dave Marcelo up front. I suspect coach Tim will probably focus on ball denial against JMF or really crowding him in the paint and gambling on SMB's outside shooting. Either way, life is going to be extra difficult for Ginebra's bigs.
- The Beermen have the deepest roster in the league. Their second or even some of their third stringers can be bona fide starters on other PBA clubs. Coach Leo, however, has cleverly trusted his starting unit for much of the playoffs up until this point. I think this is a ploy for coach Leo to play his relatively fresh reserves and tap into his team's inherent depth. I expect that his main five guys (JMF, Arwind, Alex, Marcio, and Ross) will still get a lion's share of the minutes, but I wouldn't put it past him to have "magic hugot" players in pretty much every game. Guys like RR Garcia, Gabby Espinas, and even Ronald Tubid can put up big numbers on occasion, and coach Leo surely wouldn't mind having them explode in the Finals.
- Ginebra's wingmen will have to really step up. Japeth, LA Tenorio, and Sol Mercado will get their numbers, sure, but guys like Scottie Thompson, Chris Ellis, Kevin Ferrer, and Mariano will all have to contribute heavily for the Gin Kings to pull off a monumental upset against SMB. Unlike Ginebra's series against Meralco where the Bolts had just a few reliable stars, this series will have SMB throwing their chock-full of top-level talent at the Gin Kings. Coach Tim is maybe the most brilliant tactician to ever grace the PBA, but even his acumen may not be enough on its own to scale the SMB mountain.
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- San Miguel Beer, meanwhile, will have to click on its cylinders. On paper, this is the best team in the PBA, and they have pretty much proven it so far, though they were severely tested by TNT in the semis. Had the Ka Tropa paraded full rosters in Games 6 and 7, who knows, right? Right now, with a third straight PBA Philippine Cup within their reach, the Beermen cannot afford to relax. Their main stars — JMF, Arwind, Alex, Marcio, and Ross - all must be at their very best. They cannot afford to give Ginebra any edge in this series, as the Kings have shown how even the smallest degree of momentum can push them to play beyond their own capabilities. SMB has to strike fast and strike hard.
- My prediction? San Miguel Beer will win in six games (at most) and pocket their third Philippine Cup in a row. Don't get me wrong, I admire Ginebra's heart. #NSD, right? Sure, but for the second straight conference, they will not be with who should have been their best anti-Kraken weapon, Greg Slaughter. Ginebra will be facing a much stronger foe in SMB this time around compared to their previous Finals foes, the Meralco Bolts.
I know that betting against coach Tim is usually a bad idea, but I just do not see the Kings overcoming the collective depth and championship experience of SMB this conference.
